I love your pick here in the 9th Race which goes off in 5 minutes. Good Luck Im all over your pick here . I feel we got a nice one comming. Thanks again for the time to find some live horses and post em. Many of us read often this forum even if we do not have ennough solid info to post selections! Please continue sds!!
Now if you want a horse that was "RUN INTO THE GROUND" early and for no apparent reason.....that last race!!!!
He had tons of horse and burned him way too early.
terrible finish.
But something is confirmed........
CLOSERS are in position finally. Nobody that I have seen in a few cards has done any wire-wire trick. That tracks has hardened now and closers are king. Should be some very good days ahead
tomorrow....tomorrow....
He had tons of horse and burned him way too early.
terrible finish.
But something is confirmed........
CLOSERS are in position finally. Nobody that I have seen in a few cards has done any wire-wire trick. That tracks has hardened now and closers are king. Should be some very good days ahead
tomorrow....tomorrow....
sds
I just view and normally do not post. I have been following your picks and you have talent but maybe you should bet according to odds. When the Meadowlands Harness begins I will post 4 horses per race on the races that I deem betable (where fav is weak) and give you what the odds on the 4 contenders should be. The contender with the best value with 1 min before post becomes the key horse. This game is about value and making money at the end of the year not about picking the most winners. The last time I checked favs lose 70% of the time. Does your top pick win that much more than your 4th selection? Try listing your 4 best contenders per race and just key the one with the longest odds with 1 min to go. Less winners but you will make more $ end of year. Trust me.
I just view and normally do not post. I have been following your picks and you have talent but maybe you should bet according to odds. When the Meadowlands Harness begins I will post 4 horses per race on the races that I deem betable (where fav is weak) and give you what the odds on the 4 contenders should be. The contender with the best value with 1 min before post becomes the key horse. This game is about value and making money at the end of the year not about picking the most winners. The last time I checked favs lose 70% of the time. Does your top pick win that much more than your 4th selection? Try listing your 4 best contenders per race and just key the one with the longest odds with 1 min to go. Less winners but you will make more $ end of year. Trust me.
Thanks Ray,
Let me clarify a few things. In the past I have got into trouble ASSUMING that what I see as obvious is apparently not so.
* I post my picks HOURS before post time.
* I go to the OTB to make 95% of my bets. I often STAY there for the races.
* IF i pick "Ray's NAg" as my favourite I am assuming that the odds will be lower - maybe "chalk" with no real Win wager value. IF that horse goes out at 4-1, 5-1,10-1 for some reason, then you can BET that I will adjust my wagering at post time! For some reason I have had comments here where I put a horse right below my WPS pick and stated that THIS HORSE WILL BE THE HEAVY FAV".......then IF post comes and she is not, it only makes sense to bet her and changed my WPS bet!
* taking 4 horses out of 9 and keying the highest odds horse does not appeal to me. I cannot see me ranking the horses 1-4 only to bet my 4th pick as winner AND key horse. What you are assuming is that I ALWAYS BET A CHALK HORSE IN FIRST PLACE If you look back at my picks, you will see that this is incorrect. I feel that your approach will work fine if I plan to BOX my exotics.
Bottom line, pick the horses YOU like and play them how YOU see fit. I often hear from guys on this board that "picking the winner is fine but.........."
I believe that IF you can't pick the top horses in the race, you will be unlikely to win money. That's all I try to do - pull some top 3 horses. IF I can pull the TOP horse, then I can cut down the money I need to spend on exotics. By eliminating that "first level" , I am not forced to wheel 2 or 3 horses in first place. Too many guys spend far too much money trying to get the combination. I see so many tickets like :
$1 Tri Wheel: 1,2/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5,6
IF I can pull the top horse, then I can get the same essential bet with HALF the cost (and TWICE the profit)
Let me clarify a few things. In the past I have got into trouble ASSUMING that what I see as obvious is apparently not so.
* I post my picks HOURS before post time.
* I go to the OTB to make 95% of my bets. I often STAY there for the races.
* IF i pick "Ray's NAg" as my favourite I am assuming that the odds will be lower - maybe "chalk" with no real Win wager value. IF that horse goes out at 4-1, 5-1,10-1 for some reason, then you can BET that I will adjust my wagering at post time! For some reason I have had comments here where I put a horse right below my WPS pick and stated that THIS HORSE WILL BE THE HEAVY FAV".......then IF post comes and she is not, it only makes sense to bet her and changed my WPS bet!
* taking 4 horses out of 9 and keying the highest odds horse does not appeal to me. I cannot see me ranking the horses 1-4 only to bet my 4th pick as winner AND key horse. What you are assuming is that I ALWAYS BET A CHALK HORSE IN FIRST PLACE If you look back at my picks, you will see that this is incorrect. I feel that your approach will work fine if I plan to BOX my exotics.
Bottom line, pick the horses YOU like and play them how YOU see fit. I often hear from guys on this board that "picking the winner is fine but.........."
I believe that IF you can't pick the top horses in the race, you will be unlikely to win money. That's all I try to do - pull some top 3 horses. IF I can pull the TOP horse, then I can cut down the money I need to spend on exotics. By eliminating that "first level" , I am not forced to wheel 2 or 3 horses in first place. Too many guys spend far too much money trying to get the combination. I see so many tickets like :
$1 Tri Wheel: 1,2/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5,6
IF I can pull the top horse, then I can get the same essential bet with HALF the cost (and TWICE the profit)
RayLuca,
Great post that correctly explains how knowing how to wager is much more important than knowing how to pick winners.
sds said in his reply to your post......<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Bottom line, pick the horses YOU like and play them how YOU see fit. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
That pretty much explains it all.
Great post that correctly explains how knowing how to wager is much more important than knowing how to pick winners.
sds said in his reply to your post......<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Bottom line, pick the horses YOU like and play them how YOU see fit. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
That pretty much explains it all.
LOL
I will assume that you then subscribe to the same approach then INSIDE? So what you are telling me then is your best suggestion is to take YOUR 4th rated pick - remembering that this pick is NOT necessarily 4th in the OVERALL odds ranking - and use THAT horse for your KEY. My next question is naturally - "why bother handicapping?" Why not just split the field!!! Throw out the top 2 horses and the bottom 3. Assuming you have a 9 horse field, take the remaining 4. Then take the highest odds of those and use that for the KEY - not much difference really.
Inside - where you been !!>>???
Still waiting for that "value" post....several guys were still asking about it.
sds
[This message was edited by sds on October 10, 2003 at 05:53 PM.]
[This message was edited by sds on October 10, 2003 at 05:54 PM.]
I will assume that you then subscribe to the same approach then INSIDE? So what you are telling me then is your best suggestion is to take YOUR 4th rated pick - remembering that this pick is NOT necessarily 4th in the OVERALL odds ranking - and use THAT horse for your KEY. My next question is naturally - "why bother handicapping?" Why not just split the field!!! Throw out the top 2 horses and the bottom 3. Assuming you have a 9 horse field, take the remaining 4. Then take the highest odds of those and use that for the KEY - not much difference really.
Inside - where you been !!>>???
Still waiting for that "value" post....several guys were still asking about it.
sds
[This message was edited by sds on October 10, 2003 at 05:53 PM.]
[This message was edited by sds on October 10, 2003 at 05:54 PM.]
I am a harness bettor more than thoroughbred, although I like to bet a few thoroughbred tracks every once in a while. The Big M harness is what I like to play most often, but right now they are galloping. I don't do well at Canadian tracks (Woodbine, Mohawk, Windsor) for some reason. I usually bet my local tracks (Hazel Park, Northville) but those tracks can have some weird things happen. With most of the race purses being less than $3000-$4000, a driver can easily make more cash by losing than actually winning the race (I think you know what I mean).
Some of the bigger harness tracks that I follow are Pocono, Northfield, Pompano, Meadowlands, and Balmoral.
I bet horses everyday, but it seems that this forum doesn't get much action. I would like to see more info on the horse forum (especially harness). I will start posting picks as much as I can and maybe we can get some more people to do the same.
Henway
Some of the bigger harness tracks that I follow are Pocono, Northfield, Pompano, Meadowlands, and Balmoral.
I bet horses everyday, but it seems that this forum doesn't get much action. I would like to see more info on the horse forum (especially harness). I will start posting picks as much as I can and maybe we can get some more people to do the same.
Henway
